Modi’s in Lucknow: the importance of good luck, and Uttar Pradesh, in the political success of Narendra Modi

With a slowing economy, a rival Congress Party forming alliances with regional parties in states like Tamil Nadu, and a separate alliance being formed between two prominent former Chief Ministers of India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, many had expected Narendra Modi to risk losing his majority government, and perhaps even his position as prime minister, following the elections held in India last year. Instead, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) increased the size of its majority, winning 56 percent of seats—or 65 percent, when combined with smaller BJP-allied parties—in the lower house of India’s parliament. BJP’s rival the Congress Party, which had held the office of prime minister in 55 out of India’s 67 years of political independence prior to Modi’s being elected, won just 9.6 percent of seats. Congress’ alliance won 17 percent of seats, mainly thanks to voters in Tamil Nadu.

Modi’s BJP was thus able to be re-elected with a majority government for the first time in its history. The only politicians who had ever previously been re-elected with a majority were India’s founding prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and Nehru’s daughter Indira Gandhi. By defeating Indira’s grandson Rahul in the past two elections, Modi has now joined this illustrious list.

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Figure 1– As in the previous election in 2014, the BJP and its alliance dominated the northern and western of India, leaving Congress’ alliance, along with several parties unaffiliated with either Congress or the BJP, to split the smaller south and east. In the electoral maps above you can see the BJP and its alliance in orange (okay, saffron) and the Congress and its alliance in light blue. The unaffiliated SP-BSP alliance in India’s north, meanwhile, which was formed in response to the BJP sweeping Uttar Pradesh in 2014 and then winning Uttar Pradesh’s state-level elections in 2017 (the first time the BJP had done so since 1996), won just three percent of seats in parliament, despite receiving the third most votes of any electoral alliance. That alliance, which was formed recently between the Bahajun Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP), is led by two former political rivals of one another — Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati – who had consecutively been Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh from 2002 until 2017

Modi has many skills that have contributed to this political success. He is notoriously hard-working, for example. Yet Modi has also been in possession of an even more important attribute thus far during his political career, the most important a politician can have: luck.


A Quick Analysis of Modi’s Career

Modi’s political career, first as Chief Minister of Gujarat from 2001 to 2014 and then as Prime Minister of India since 2014, has been based on two pillars:

  1. Economic Ability
    • Gujarat was often the most dynamic economy in India while Modi was leading it
    • India, despite slowing along with much of the world economy, has maintained a decent economic performance since 2014, and recently overtook China’s growth rate
  2. Hindu Nationalism
            Arguably, some of the most extreme examples of this include:

These two aspects of Modi’s appeal have contributed to his political success in northern India in particular, where Hindi(-Urdu) is spoken relatively widely and where, especially in inland states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, poorer populations live who may be more susceptible to BJP-style nationalism or promises of economic growth and anti-corruption efforts. Modi himself represents the constituency of Varanasi, in Uttar Pradesh. 20 percent of BJP seats are from that state.

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With more than 200 million people, Uttar Pradesh is by far the most populous state not just in India, but anywhere in the world. It is home to a larger Hindu population than any other state in India, and a larger Muslim population than (for example) any Arab country apart from Egypt. Its neighbours too are populous: Uttar Pradesh directly borders India’s third and fifth most populous states, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. It also directly borders India’s capital city-state, Delhi. 10 of India’s 14 prime ministers since independence have represented constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. Modi, in addition to being MP for the holy city Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh, has had his political career intertwine with this state in other significant ways. Notably, by way of the 2002 Gujarat Riots’ direct connection to the Ayodhya Mosque/Temple Dispute (a long, complex story that is analogous to, though in many ways different from and even more tragic than, the Middle East’s dispute over Jerusalem’s holy sites), and the continuing involvement in that dispute by BJP leaders such as Modi’s designated Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath. The BJP’s rival, the Congress Party, also has roots in Uttar Pradesh. Its city of Allahabad (now renamed Prayagraj by Yogi Adityanath’s government) was the home of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty (unrelated to the Gandhi), a family that has supplied five generations of Congress’ top leaders — three of them Prime Ministers. The current scion of the family, Rahul Gandhi, is however an MP for a constituency in Kerala, in India’s far south. Rahul also contested, but lost, his family’s historic seat in Amethi, Uttar Pradesh (located just outside Lucknow, the state’s capital), where he was previously the MP from 2004 to 2019. Rahul’s only sibling, Priyanka, formally entered politics in 2019, serving as Congress’ General Secretary for Eastern Uttar Pradesh. Their mother, Sonia Gandhi, who is currently the president of the Congress party, is an MP who has her constituency in Lucknow

This has led to an obvious, arguably misleading debate in Western media, over whether Modi’s economic pros justify his political cons. This might or might not be a legitimate debate, but it also overlooks one of the key realities of Modi’s career: the fact that much, maybe most, of his economic success has been due to factors beyond his control. Modi has been extremely lucky in relation to factors such as global economic growth, oil and gas prices, and the utterly different economic characteristics of Gujarat (the state where Modi rose to fame) compared to India as a whole.

Gujarat, 2001 to 2014

Modi was Chief Minister of the state Gujarat from October 2001 until May 2014, when he became India’s prime minister. Two facts must be recognized to put Modi’s time in Gujarat into context: the exceptional status of Gujarat, and the exceptional nature of the period from 2001-2014.

The period from 2001 to 2014 was the 2000s commodity boom, the period that followed the early 2000s recession when, apart from a sharp dip during the 2008-2009 recession, energy and other commodity prices were high and global economic growth was significant, particularly in China and other developing markets but also in North America and (before the 2010s) Europe.  Brent crude oil, for example, rose from all-time lows of $9 in 1998 to $144 in 2008 and $128 in 2012. Modi came into office in Gujarat when oil prices were $20, exited office with oil at $110, then watched from his new office in New Delhi as oil prices fell to $46 in the subsequent seven months.

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The characteristics of Gujarat’s economy are similarly exceptional. Together with its next-door neighbour the city of Mumbai, the state of Gujarat is India’s leading commercial hub. This is partly a result of Gujarat’s long and sheltered coastline, which has helped allow it to account for an estimated 69 percent of all cargo volume handled at India’s private ports, as well as being home to India’s busiest public port, a remarkable feat considering that Gujarat’s 60 million people are only 5 percent of India’s population.

Just as remarkable is the Gujarati diaspora, which leads in commercial activity throughout much of the Indian Ocean, particularly in eastern Africa. (The most famous Gujarati abroad was, of course, Mohandas Gandhi, who lived in South Africa for more than two decades. Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founding leader of Pakistan, was also a native Gujarati speaker, who was trained as a barrister in England). The diaspora thrives as far away as the US, where 20 percent or so of US-Indians are Gujaratis, and are one of America’s most successful groups.

The Gujarati diaspora has historically also been prominent in the nearby Gulf region of the Middle East. It remains active in the Gulf today, particularly in Oman. Gujarat itself, moreover, holds the most prominent position in India’s oil and gas industries, in terms of oil production, oil refining, oil pipelines, gas pipelines, LNG regasification, and petrochemicals.

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As such, the commodity boom and global economic growth both helped Gujarat remain the fastest-growing Indian economy in the 2000s (apart from the small Himalayan states Uttarakhand and Sikkim).


India, 2014 to 2019

India’s economy is the opposite of Gujarat’s. It is relatively insular rather than dependent on global economic activity, the major exception to this being the large amount of oil it imports, more than any country apart from the US or China. Global economic conditions since Modi became prime minister are unlike those which existed prior to 2015, however. Oil prices have fallen to a range of $30-$70, benefiting India. Global and developing markets have slowed, which has hurt India but not nearly as much as it has hurt most other economies, in particular commodity exporters like Brazil or Russia.

There is even a possibility that India’s slowing economy has helped Modi. It may be that the slowing was not severe enough to undercut Modi’s reputation as a great economic steward, yet  was significant enough for people to want a great economic steward – Modi – to remain in charge in order to deal with it. In other words, the lucky timing that helped Modi to build up his economic reputation in Gujarat, combined with the fact that India’s recent economic slowdown has not been as severe as many other countries’, may have helped lead to Modi’s huge victory.

This is not a unique situation. Politicians, no matter how praiseworthy or skilled, often do not control their own fortunes. Modi remains in luck now. More troublingly, perhaps, so does Yogi Adityanath.

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Notes:

  • The SP-BSP alliance won only 3% of seats in parliament despite receiving ~38 million votes (6.2% of the country’s popular vote), the most of any party other than the BJP or Congress. 32 million of those votes came from Uttar Pradesh (split roughly 50-50 between BSP and SP), but the BJP got 42 million votes in Uttar Pradesh. This occurred to an even greater extent in the previous election: in 2014, before its alliance with its longtime rival the SP, the BSP received more than 20 million votes, the third most of any party in India, yet did not win even a single seat in parliament!
  • The next largest party, the All India Trinamool Congress, won roughly 4% of India’s popular vote in 2019 and received 4% of the seats, all from West Bengal, India’s most populous coastal state. The All India Trinamool Congress is incorrectly included in the SP-BSP Mahagathbandhan (“Grand Alliance”) on the election results maps shown above
  • Though the BJP mainly won the north and west of the country, it also made inroads into the south and east in this past election, more so than in 2014, notably in West Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, and Karnataka
  • Indira Gandhi was unique in representing multiple constituencies during her 15-year tenure as PM (first from 1966-1977 and then from 1980 until her assassination in 1984). She first represented two different constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, but later upon returning to power in 1980 represented a constituency in Andhra Pradesh, in south-east India